Predictions: Will There Be a NBC Blackout On YouTube TV? Will the FCC Get Involved?

By Phillip Swann
The TV Answer Man – Follow me on X.

TV Answer Man, what is your prediction on whether there will be a blackout between YouTube TV and NBC? And do you think the FCC will get involved? – Michael, Chesapeake, Virginia.

Michael, YouTube TV has notified its subscribers that it could lose all NBC programming, including NBC affiliates, on Tuesday, September 30, due to a carriage fight between the companies. This has sports fans biting their nails because NBC carries Saturday college football games and is the exclusive provider of the NFL’s Sunday Night Football contests.

The dispute is largely over how much YouTube TV should pay NBC to carry its channels. (See our article for a full list of affected NBC channels.) I say ‘largely’ because there could be some intangibles such as whether YouTube TV subscribers should get free access to the NBC owned Peacock streaming service plus whether the live streamer will continue carrying the NBC regional sports networks (RSNs). (YouTube TV is not a fan of RSNs.)

My prediction is that there will be a blackout starting on Tuesday, at least a short-term one. As Alex Sherman of CNBC noted last week, YouTube TV is now the top dog in the live streaming category – if not the entire pay TV universe – and it wants to flex its muscles a bit in an attempt to lower its program acquisition costs. Google, YouTube TV’s owner, was expecting to do that with the recent Fox carriage dispute, but FCC Chairman Brendan Carr foiled that plan.

Consequently, I suspect YouTube TV is playing hardball in its negotiations with NBC and that will lead to the blackout.

And I don’t expect Carr to get involved in this dispute because he doesn’t have a dog in the hunt, so to speak. As a President Trump appointee, the FCC chief clearly favored the conservative Fox network over Google in the Fox-YouTube TV fight, publicly demanding that Google settle the fight before a blackout could occur. How much influence that had on Google’s thinking is unclear but it likely was a significant contributor. The Trump administration has not been shy about using the tools of government to get its way and many companies have decided to act accordingly.

Carr also intervened in the Comcast-Yes Network carriage dispute last spring, again favoring one company (Yes Network) over another. Why? President Trump has been a vocal and frequent critic of Comcast, particularly the company’s news divisions at NBC and MSNBC. (The companies reached a short-term deal which is scheduled to expire this week.)

However, since this dispute is between two companies that the Trump doesn’t like – Google and Comcast (NBC) – I don’t see Carr getting involved.

So, it says here that a NBC blackout on YouTube TV is coming this week. How long will it last? I would say at least a few weeks, but probably not more than a month.

Please consider making a donation to The TV Answer Man site here at the Buy Me a Coffee site. Any donation size is appreciated and will help me continue to provide these articles to you.

Have a Question? Ask The TV Answer Man!
Have a question about a favorite show, streaming service or new TV product? Send it to The TV Answer Man at swann@tvanswerman.com. Please include your first name and hometown in your message.