Disney vs. YouTube TV, Day 15: Is It Over? (Tough Thursday; Blackout Betting; Who Has Leverage?)

By Phillip Swann
The TV Answer Man – Buy Me a Coffee!

YouTube TV on Halloween (October 31, 2025) lost all Disney-owned channels, including ESPN, the ABC affiliates and FX, due to a carriage dispute between the companies. Until there is a settlement, The TV Answer Man will post a daily notice here on whether the blackout has been lifted. I will publish the update in the early morning hours so when you wake up, you can check whether the two sides have settled. I encourage you to bookmark the site for easier reference.

So, it’s day 15 of the dispute. Friday at 4:30 a.m. ET. Is the blackout over? Sorry, no it’s not. Let’s go to the updates:

Disney Execs Dampen Enthusiasm For Deal; Viewers Left Out to Dry
Pity the poor YouTube TV subscriber. You go to sleep on Wednesday night thinking there’s ‘momentum’ for a new carriage deal with Disney. But the next day, even before the clock strikes 9 a.m. ET, a top Disney executive (CFO Hugh Johnston) is on television saying the fight could still “go for a little while…we’re ready to go as long as (YouTube TV) wants to.”

That was enough to send you back to bed.

As I noted yesterday, I suspect Disney is downplaying any progress to maintain leverage in the negotiations. But it was still a tough day for YouTube TV customers looking for an immediate end to the stalemate. To learn more about what Disney had to say yesterday, click here.

Disney vs. YouTube TV: Who Has the Upper Hand?
And speaking of leverage, Alex Sherman of CNBC (the network on which Hugh Johnston crushed everyone’s hopes) reported yesterday that it’s unclear which company has it – leverage, that is. YouTube TV, Sherman says, can afford to wait it out because the service is a small part of the Google conglomerate. But Disney also has leverage because it recently launched its new Unlimited app ($29.99 a month) and it owns two of YouTube TV’s top live streaming rivals, Hulu Live and Fubo. Disney can actually benefit from a blackout with increased subscriptions to those services. “With pressure on both sides, it’s a pretty safe bet to think this conflict won’t last too much longer. But with Disney having multiple soft landings in the near term, and YouTube TV having little long-term pressure to rush an agreement, finding the sweet spot in the middle will be the key to getting a deal done,” Sherman writes. The good news here is that Sherman joins the chorus of analysts/journalists who say it’s likely a deal is sooner than later. To read Sherman’s report, click here.

You Can Bet the Blackout Won’t End By Monday – Really, You Can Actually Bet On It
Kalshi, the predictions market service that allows you to bet on real-life outcomes, simply couldn’t resist. You can actually wager on whether the YouTube TV-Disney fight will end by Monday, November 17, 2025. As of this morning, the company says there’s a mere 21 percent chance of a settlement by then, down from 31 percent yesterday. The odds rise to 61 percent by November 24, 2025 and 76 percent by November 30. Action is hot and heavy, Kalshi says, “one of the hottest markets on the platform today.” To learn more, click here.

Will Disney Take Stock & Strike a Deal?
I’ve said from the beginning that both companies will put their shareholders over their subscribers (or viewers) in this fight. Sure, they will say publicly they want the best deal for the people, but the reality is that they want the best deal for the money people, those who support their companies by buying their stock. This is about improving each company’s financial position.

With that said, Disney’s stock fell eight percent yesterday after company execs downplayed prospects of an imminent deal. The stock also was affected by the company’s lackluster quarterly numbers but the YouTube TV blackout didn’t help. Maybe that will change how today’s negotiations proceed. To learn more, click here.

That’s it for now. Come back later today for more updates and definitely come back early Saturday morning for our new ‘Is It Over’ column, assuming the two sides haven’t settled by then.

But before we go, kudos to John Ourand for Puck’s use of ‘Four Corners’ in the headline for his latest column on the fight. Only someone old enough to recall the great North Carolina basketball teams of the 1960s/70s (and the Phil Ford-led Four Corners offense) will get it. But I got it, John.

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