DIRECTV vs Disney: How Long Will the Blackout Last?

By Phillip Swann
The TV Answer Man –Follow on X.
Former editor of Satellite DIRECT magazine. Reported on DIRECTV for 30 years.

TV Answer Man, you hit the nail with your DIRECTV-Disney blackout prediction. Now what is your prediction for how long it will last? — Natalie, Reno, Nevada.

Natalie, I did predict that it was likely the DIRECTV-Disney carriage negotiation would ultimately trigger a blackout of the Disney channels (including ESPN) on the three DIRECTV TV services and U-verse. And last night, that forecast came true when the two sides failed to reach a new agreement.

So, how long will the blackout last? Let’s look into the crystal ball:

I believe the impasse will not be a few days because the issues are more complicated than what you normally see in a carriage fight. Usually, it’s largely a matter of how much the TV provider should pay to carry a channel(s). But here, DIRECTV says it wants to reinvent the programming bundle with Disney’s help. Rather than offer most, if not all, Disney channels in every package, the satcaster wants to break them up so it can offer smaller packages. This would allow DIRECTV to sell slimmer plans at reduced rates which could attract cost-conscious consumers who have turned to streaming.

Disney says it’s open to having that discussion, but the devil is in the details and there are a lot of details here.

DIRECTV also suggests that Disney wants its support for the Venu sports streaming service which also includes Fox and Warner Bros. Discovery as partners. The TV provider supported Fubo’s motion for a preliminary injunction against Venu (which Fubo got and Venu is appealing) so that could further complicate the talks.

That said, a lengthy blackout would severely hurt both companies with the college football season underway and the NFL season starting this week. Disney is now without the 11 million DIRECTV audience (bad for advertising) while DIRECTV is risking the lost of a significant number of subscribers who feel they can’t do without ESPN. So, there’s motivation on both sides for a quick settlement.

But I think it will take at least a few weeks to resolve and perhaps as much as a month because of the aforementioned thorny issues. I seriously doubt, however, that it will go beyond that.

Natalie, hope that helps. Happy viewing and stay safe!

The TV Answer Man is veteran journalist Phillip Swann who has covered the TV technology scene for more than three decades. He will report on the latest news and answer your questions regarding new devices and services that are changing the way you watch television. See the bio for Phillip Swann here.

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