DIRECTV vs. Disney: Will There Be a Blackout?

By Phillip Swann
The TV Answer Man –Follow me on X.

TV Answer Man, I read your article this morning on the DIRECTV-Disney contract talks. Do you think there will be a blackout. We live in Fresno so we would lose our ABC station and the other Disney networks. What does your crystal ball say, Swanni? — David, Fresno, California.

David, Bloomberg reports that DIRECTV’s current agreement to carry the Disney-owned channels (including ESPN and some local ABC affiliates) might expire as early as this Sunday, September 1. (John Ourand of Puck was first to report the companies are negotiating a new deal.) If a new agreement isn’t in place by then, it could be a blackout of the entire Disney-owned lineup on DIRECTV, DIRECTV Stream, DIRECTV Via Streaming and U-verse. (See the list of channels here.)

Unless you are in the negotiating room (or Zoom), it’s difficult to take the temperature of carriage talks. Are both sides inclined to find common ground or are they looking to draw the proverbial line in the sand to set a precedent that can be employed in future negotiations?

Since Bloomberg is reporting that DIRECTV wants to dramatically modify its current agreement with Disney so they can offer more flexible packages, I’m afraid the answer is the latter.

This will likely be a difficult and contentious negotiation which could extend a few weeks or more after Sunday’s deadline. Certainly, the companies could agree to a temporary deal that would prevent a blackout while talks continued. But Disney would likely not support that based on how it handled a similar negotiation with Charter’s Spectrum TV in September 2023. That dispute led to a blackout that lasted 11 days before Disney relented to give Spectrum the kind of package flexibility that DIRECTV is seeking.

The other reason why I think the odds are favorable for a blackout, albeit a relative short one, is that Rob Thun, DIRECTV’s chief content officer, issued a statement a week ago that outlined the company’s effort to reinvent the pay TV industry with smaller, less expensive packages. The timing of that statement was no coincidence, in my humble opinion. Thun was courting favor with his subscribers in advance of a possible, if not likely, Disney blackout. The statement was designed to persuade his customers that DIRECTV’s position was necessary and correct even if it led to a blackout.

So I would say the odds of a blackout are better than 50-50 although I wouldn’t say it’s a guarantee. With the college and NFL football seasons heating up, both companies will suffer if there is a blackout. That might improve the chances of a short-term agreement while talks continue.

I will guarantee that The TV Answer Man will monitor this situation and report back here if anything significant changes. Until then, happy viewing and stay safe!

The TV Answer Man is veteran journalist Phillip Swann who has covered the TV technology scene for more than three decades. He will report on the latest news and answer your questions regarding new devices and services that are changing the way you watch television. See the bio for Phillip Swann here.

Have a question about new TV technologies? Send it to The TV Answer Man at swann@tvanswerman.com Please include your first name and hometown in your message.