TV Answer Man, I am very concerned about DIRECTV losing Fox. Is it likely that Fox will be removed? It seems likely because why else would they post such a scary warning several days before the big deadline?! Right? What’s your take here? — Barry, Marina Del Rey, California. 

Barry, Fox yesterday afternoon posted a viewer alert at KeepFox.com that said DIRECTV, DIRECTV Stream and U-verse could lose all Fox Sports programming due to a carriage dispute between the companies. The blackout, which could begin as early as midnight on December 2, would include the Fox-owned network affiliates in 18 markets, FS1, FS2, Big Ten Network, Fox Deportes, and Fox Soccer Plus.

The warning sent shivers down the backs of DIRECTV subscribers since Fox is the TV home of NFL football games, college football conference title games such as the Big Ten and Pac 12, and the 2022 FIFA World Cup.

While Fox stated it’s committed to “reaching a fair agreement with DIRECTV,” the network didn’t sound hopeful a deal can be reached before the deadline.

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“Despite our best efforts for months, we regret that DIRECTV continues to demand unprecedented special treatment that represents a wholesale change to our long-standing relationship and is out of step with marketplace terms,” the network said.

DIRECTV tried to calm the waters with its counter statement.

“We’re confident we’ll come to terms ahead of any potential disruption. In fact, we’ve renewed nearly 200 local FOX stations much like these over the last few years,” the satcaster said. (Any blackout would not affect local Fox network affiliates that are not owned by Fox.)

But the damage was done. Subscribers to the three DIRECTV-owned TV services quickly marched to the social media sites to express an array of emotions, but mostly anger and much of it directed at DIRECTV.

“I mean, we’ve watched the ads enough! Stop showing them again! Or I’m going to Comcast! Already had enough without CBS and maybe without FOX Sports! Get your f——-act together DirecTV!” tweeted one upset customer.

And that’s exactly what Fox wants.

The network knows that DIRECTV has already lost several million subscribers over the last several years. It also knows that DIRECTV is already involved in a five-week blackout dispute with 25 Mission Broadcasting-owned local stations, including 12 Fox locals.

DIRECTV simply can’t afford to upset more customers now. And Fox knows that, too.

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By issuing a public warning several days in advance (and on NFL Sunday), Fox is ensuring that a significant number of DIRECTV subscribers will call, send e-mails, text or send smoke signals if necessary to alert the satcaster that they will drop service if they lose Fox at this pivotal time in sports broadcasting. That in turn could put more pressure on DIRECTV to bow to Fox’s carriage demands in the days leading up to the deadline.

It’s a ploy, folks, one used by networks and programmers for years. In fact, Fox issued this warning last October just a few days before settling a carriage dispute with Altice.

“Despite our best efforts for months, we regret that Altice continues to demand special treatment and reject marketplace terms, compelling us to alert our loyal viewers of a potential blackout of all Fox channels by Optimum.”

Does that statement sound familiar? Once again, here is the Fox statement from yesterday:

“Despite our best efforts for months, we regret that DIRECTV continues to demand unprecedented special treatment that represents a wholesale change to our long-standing relationship and is out of step with marketplace terms,” the network said.

Uh, yeah.

This gamesmanship doesn’t mean that DIRECTV will succumb to the pressure. It also doesn’t mean that it will lose Fox by this weekend. But it does mean, in this veteran reporter’s opinion, that Fox is sounding the alarm bells early because it believes it will give it more leverage at the negotiating table rather than it being a reflection of how dire the situation is.

The TV Answer Man will monitor this situation this week and report back here if anything significant changes.

Until then, happy viewing and stay safe!

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— Phillip Swann
@tvanswerman