Which company (or companies) will win the next NFL Sunday Ticket contract when the current pact with DIRECTV expires after the 2022 season?
The TV Answer Man has assessed the playing field and compiled a new odds board for the major companies thought to be interested in securing the rights. (We did the same a year ago. You can see our March 2021 odds here.)
Amazon: 2:1 (Previous odds: 5:2)
Amazon showed the industry how serious it is about live sports when it agreed last year to pay more than $1 billion a year for the Thursday Night Football rights. (And Amazon recently captured the exclusive rights to 21 New York Yankees games in the New York market.) The e-commerce titan would become an instant sports giant if it won the exclusive Sunday Ticket streaming rights starting in 2023 and I suspect it will spend what it takes to squeeze out ESPN+ and Apple for the contract.
Disney/ESPN: 5:2 (Previous odds: 2:1)
News reports have suggested that Disney/ESPN’s interest has waned some, but company executives have acknowledged publicly they are bidding for the contract. I doubt very seriously that they would admit that if they didn’t think they were in the running — and was prepared to do everything possible to win. However, Amazon arguably needs the Ticket more than ESPN which already has the rights to numerous high-profile sports. That will push Amazon to up the ante at the finish line, narrowly defeating ESPN.
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Apple: 3-1 (Previous odds: 15-1)
Apple’s recent deal with Major League Baseball to offer Friday night doubleheaders has made the tech company the flavor of the month for some sports media analysts; they are now predicting Apple will also secure the next Ticket contract. I have no doubt that Apple is serious here, but I predict the company will fade in the stretch. Apple is new to sports licensing and likely won’t be inclined to agree to some thorny league concessions in the final stages.
DIRECTV: 4-1 (Previous odds: 4-1)
The same news reports that hyped Apple’s Ticket chances also dismissed DIRECTV’s odds of retaining it. I agree that DIRECTV will not keep its exclusive, but I still believe it will at least be awarded the rights to bars and restaurants, if not certain rural areas as well. (The league could split the Ticket contract between two companies or allow one winning company to sublease part of the contract to a second company.)
DIRECTV has sold the Sunday Ticket to restaurants and bars for years, and it would be uniquely positioned to do so after 2022. That alone could help DIRECTV win a portion of the next Ticket. And if it wasn’t enough, DIRECTV’s audience includes a large number of rural residents who don’t have access to high-speed Internet service. If the Sunday Ticket is a streaming exclusive in 2023, the league could lose a significant number of rural viewers.
Comcast/Peacock: 10:1 (Previous odds: 7:2)
The nation’s largest cable TV company has a host of resources (and motivations) to make a serious bid for the Sunday Ticket. Comcast could use it to generate subs for Peacock, its new national streaming service, for its cable TV service, which is available in 40 states, and Flex, its new streaming device that’s now available only in Comcast markets but could be expanded nationally with the Sunday Ticket as a feature. If there’s a company that could pull off an upset here, it’s Comcast. The company could offer the plan to an overwhelming majority of Americans via streaming or cable.
Netflix: 15-1 (Previous odds: 25-1)
Netflix has the money to do anything it wants despite its frequent denials of being interested in pursuing live sports deals. Highly unlikely, but never say never with Netflix. And don’t overlook that Netflix and the NFL may be discussing an ownership stake in NFL Films.
Google: 40-1 (Previous odds: 10-1)
Google owns YouTube and YouTube TV, which could both benefit from offering the Sunday Ticket as a streaming exclusive. But the company’s once active interest in sports seems to have waned in the last few years; perhaps a little sticker shock when it discovered how often (and how much) the leagues (and sports channels) raise their prices.
Final note: The NFL has not said when it will announce the next contract.
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Doesn’t much matter to me, but I’m hoping for Amazon here. For one, they don’t care about making money directly off selling content. They get you on Prime accounts, more shopping, etc. and I already do all that anyway. 🙂 So I enjoy that Amazon happily gives away content, cheap devices, etc. in order to keep that going. Another thing I like about Amazon is they have all of this AWS data that they like to sprinkle around. When you’re watching their Thursday night games on a Fire Stick you get tons of analytics/stats stuff that you can pull up with a click. I’m hoping and expecting that they’ll continue to expand that now that they’re expanding the number of games they’ll have.
Big assumption there that there won’t be a fee for sunday ticket. Considering how much directv gouged people for it, don’t expect that to be free.
Same as how so many things used to be free with prime, and now are an extra cost subscription.
Or paying extra for premium subs under Prime Channels.
That’s fair, but I’d be shocked if it were anything even remotely close to the crazy prices from DirecTV. They just don’t usually operate that way.
My problem with streaming is that it’s a second rate technology masquerading as a 21st century godsend!
Huh ? Second rate ? Please. My TV has never looked better. Streaming produces a superior picture to traditional cable TV. Streaming is also very much here to stay. And if Amazon is willing to spend several billion dollars for the Sunday Ticket, does that mean that they think that streaming is second rate technology ?
Never said it wasn’t here to stay, and didn’t say the picture is ok. Picture isn’t great but it’s ok. My Directv feed is as good or better picture. I don’t have a problem with my DTV buffering or going out during a FB game. Whether Amazon is willing to spend money on Sunday Ticket isn’t relevant to are they willing to spend money on it. They stream, they want to capture that market segment to drive customers to their service. Just as Apple or some other streamer.
Streaming has definitely had some issues. I cut the cord like 6-7 years ago and I’ve watched many sporting events where buffering was an issue (if not all out signal dropping). That’s largely not the case anymore, but it still happens. Mostly, though, I’d blame that on the people sending the signal. When Disney really wanted to put some muscle behind streaming they went out and bought the best company in the business and for the most part D+ has been pretty solid. If they would do that for ESPN+, and if the other companies did the same I don’t think there would be any reason to call it 2nd rate. Usually this is because these companies didn’t want to go streaming. They’d rather stay with their 20th century tech/models, but are being pulled kicking and screaming so they didn’t have an incentive to make it better. Amazon, though, isn’t in that class. They didn’t have cable agreements. They’re all streaming (when it comes to video), and to my knowledge I don’t remember a single time that I’ve seen buffering, a loss of signal, or any issues with Amazon’s streaming.
Personally, I’ve never missed cable/satellite. I save a lot of money each month, have way more options for what content I want, and I can watch it on any device I want. If I popped back to the 20th century and showed someone my TV/movie setup they’d say it’s pretty close to a godsend. 🙂
Whoever gets it I hope they offer multi game view.
My streaming experience has been excellent. I have had regular DirecTV and what I am seeing on YouTube TV at this time is a match when it comes to picture quality. No buffering, no issues. A picture that to me looks as good as 4K on my Sony set. We are on a 500/500 fiber Internet connection here.
Bob, I too have YouTube TV. As well as DTV sat. service. Picture on YTTV is similar as DTV, although not quite as good on my LG OLED tv. I have gigabit fiber internet. Still, at times I have some minor issues with YTTV. The other issue I have with streaming services is their program guide interfaces. What a mickey mouse set up.
Has there been a stampede to Directv because they have exclusivity on NFL sunday ticket? I see no evidence. Is it a loss leader for them or just a money pit?
I personally hope that Amazon wins it. I already have Prime but I hope there is one thing they don’t do and that’s blackout games based on where I live. I live in Northwest Wisconsin and there are a lot of Packers fans who get blacked out of Packer games because we live in the Vikings TV and it annoys us. If we are able to get a relatively affordable Sunday Ticket on Amazon, then don’t black out any games at all. Also with streaming, a lot of people don’t have local tv because they don’t have their TVs hooked up to an antenna for various reasons.
paul, that’s an NFL dictate, not a carrier dictate. You can bet your local teams will blacked out regardless of who wins the rights.